Tuesday & Thursday from 1:30-3:00 FISH 203
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| Date | Instructor | Lecture topics | Slides | Video of Lecture | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Apr |
Mark |
Course overview Properties of time series Data transformations Time series decomposition |
pdf 1 pdf 2 html 1 html 2 Rmd 1 Rmd 2 |
2025 Video |
CM09: Chap 1
HA18: Chap 6 HSW18: Intro to ts |
| 3 Apr |
Mark |
Covariance & correlation Autocorrelation & Partial autocorrelation Cross correlation White noise Random walks Differencing |
pdf
1 html 1 Rmd 1 |
2025 Video |
CM09: Chap 2
CM09: Chap 4 HA18: Chap 8.1 HSW18: Intro to ts R script for class |
| 8 Apr |
Mark |
Autoregressive (AR) models Moving average (MA) models Stationary AR models Invertible MA models Using ACF & PACF for model ID |
pdf 1 html 1 Rmd 1 |
2025 Video |
CM09: Chap 6
CM09: Chap 7 HA18: Chap 8.1-8.5 R script for class |
| 10 Apr |
Eli |
Box-Jenkins method Forecasting with ARIMA models Seasonal ARIMA models |
pdf 1 pdf 2 html 1 html 2 Rmd 1 Rmd 2 |
2025 Video |
HA18: Chap 8.6-8.9
HA18: Chap 7 H18: ARIMA Models CM09: Chap 7.1-7.2 Forecasting and Analytics |
| 15 Apr |
Eli |
Holt and Holt-Winters Model performance Linear Gaussian state space models Random walks |
pdf 1 pdf 2 html 1 html 2 Rmd 1 Rmd 2 |
2025 Video |
HWSb:
Chap 6 Additional background resources HWS18a: Chap 7 MARSS function MARSS Ref Sheet Auger-Méthé et al 2021 Scripts are in the class repo |
| 17 Apr |
Eli |
Introduction to multivariate state-space models Multivariate random walks |
pdf 1 |
2025 Video |
HWS18a:
Chap 8 MARSS function MARSS Ref Sheet example scripts in repo |
| 22 Apr |
Eli |
MARSSX and ARMAX models Seasonal effects |
pdf 1 html 1 Rmd 1 |
2025 Video |
lec_07_covariates.R
MARSS Models HWS18a: Chap 8 Missing Covariates HWS18a: Chap 11 HA18: Chap 5 HA18: Chap 9 H18: Chap 6 example scripts in repo |
| 24 Apr |
Mark |
Dynamic factor analysis (DFA) |
pdf 1 html 1 Rmd 1 |
2025 Video |
Zuur
et al. 2003a Zuur et al. 2003b Ohlberger et al. 2016 HWS18a: Chap 10 |
| 29 Apr |
Mark |
Dynamic linear models (DLMs) |
pdf 1 html 1 Rmd 1 |
2021 Video |
Petris et al. (2009)
HWS18a: Chap 16 Scheuerell & Williams (2005) |
| 1 May |
Eric |
Hidden Markov models |
html 1 Rmd 1 Rmd 2 |
2021 Video |
Zucchini
et al. 2006 hmmTMB vignette |
| 6 May |
Eric |
Generalized additive models |
html 1 Rmd 1 |
2025 Video |
|
| 8 May |
Eric |
Multivariate GAMs |
html 1 Rmd 1 |
2025 Video |
Clark and Wells
2022 mvgam |
| 13 May |
Eric |
Multi-model inference and selection Information criteria Cross-validation & LOOIC |
html 1 Rmd 1 |
2025 Video |
See list of references in the lecture HA18: Section 3.4 H18: Forecast accuracy H18: Variable selection |
| 15 May |
Eric |
Spatial and spatio-temporal models |
html 1 Rmd 1 |
2025 Video |
https://pbs-assess.github.io/sdmTMB-teaching/noaa-psaw-2022/
|
| 20 May |
All |
Review session |
|
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| 22 May |
Mark |
Frequency domain Fourier transforms Spectral analysis Wavelet analysis |
pdf 1 html 1 Rmd 1 |
|
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| 27 May |
Eli |
MAR(p) Models Estimating interaction strengths Gompertz models Community stability metrics |
|
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Hampton
et al 2013 Ives et al 2003 HWS18a: Chap 14 & 18 MAR Stability Metrics AR(1) errors Mark’s B estimation talk |
| 29 May |
All |
Review session |
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| 3 Jun |
|
Student presentations Order: Anna, Ben, Brian, Matheus |
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| 5 Jun |
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Student presentations Order: Nicole, Tina, Emma, Mary, Lilac |
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