Tuesday & Thursday from 10:00-11:20 FISH 213
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| Date | Instructor | Lecture topics | Slides | Video of Lecture | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Mar |
Mark |
Course overview Properties of time series Data transformations Time series decomposition |
pdf 1 pdf 2 html 1 html 2 Rmd 1 Rmd 2 |
Video 1 |
CM09: Chap 1
HA18: Chap 6 HSW18: Intro to ts |
| 30 Mar |
Mark |
Covariance & correlation Autocorrelation & Partial autocorrelation Cross correlation White noise Random walks Differencing |
pdf
1 html 1 Rmd 1 |
Video 1 |
CM09: Chap 2
CM09: Chap 4 HA18: Chap 8.1 HSW18: Intro to ts R script for class |
| 4 Apr |
Mark |
Autoregressive (AR) models Moving average (MA) models Stationary AR models Invertible MA models Using ACF & PACF for model ID |
pdf 1 html 1 Rmd 1 |
Video 1 |
CM09: Chap 6
CM09: Chap 7 HA18: Chap 8.1-8.5 R script for class |
| 6 Apr |
Eli |
Box-Jenkins method Forecasting with ARIMA models Seasonal ARIMA models |
pdf 1 html 1 Rmd 1 |
Video 1 Video 2 Video 3 |
HA18: Chap 8.6-8.9
H18: ARIMA Models CM09: Chap 7.1-7.2 CM not as useful this week Video 1 2021 Video 2 2021 |
| 11 Apr |
Eli |
Univariate state-space models |
pdf
1 html 1 Rmd 1 |
Video 1 |
HWSb:
Chap 6 Additional background resources HWS18a: Chap 7 MARSS function MARSS Ref Sheet Auger-Méthé et al 2021 Scripts are in the class repo |
| 13 Apr |
Eli |
Introduction to multivariate state-space models |
pdf 1 |
Video 1 |
HWS18a:
Chap 8 MARSS function MARSS Ref Sheet uni_example_0.R marss_example_0.R marss_example_0_with_comments.R marss_example_1.R marss_example_2.R marss_example_3.R marss_example_4.R marss_example_5.R |
| 18 Apr |
Eli |
MARSSX and ARMAX models Seasonal effects Missing covariates |
pdf 1 html 1 Rmd 1 |
Video 1 |
lec_07_covariates.R
MARSS Models HWS18a: Chap 8 Missing Covariates HWS18a: Chap 11 HA18: Chap 5 HA18: Chap 9 H18: Chap 6 |
| 20 Apr |
Mark |
Dynamic factor analysis (DFA) |
pdf 1 html 1 Rmd 1 |
Video 1 |
Zuur
et al. 2003a Zuur et al. 2003b Ohlberger et al. 2016 HWS18a: Chap 10 |
| 25 Apr |
Mark |
Dynamic linear models (DLMs) |
pdf 1 html 1 Rmd 1 |
Video 1 |
Petris et al. (2009)
HWS18a: Chap 16 Scheuerell & Williams (2005) |
| 27 Apr |
Eric |
Hidden Markov models |
html 1 Rmd 1 Rmd 2 |
Video 1 |
Zucchini
et al. 2006 depmixS4 vignette |
| 2 May |
Eric |
Bayesian estimation of time-series and state-space models Stan |
pdf 1 html 1 html 2 Rmd 1 Rmd 2 |
Video 1 |
Stan manual
Monnahan et al. 2017 mcmc intro |
| 4 May |
Eric |
MAP estimation Multivariate models DFA Writing Bayesian models in Stan |
pdf 1 html 1 html 2 Rmd 1 Rmd 2 |
Video 1 |
Stan manual
bayesdfa example |
| 9 May |
Eric |
Multi-model inference and selection Information criteria Cross-validation & LOOIC |
pdf 1 html 1 Rmd 1 |
Video 1 |
See list of references in the lecture HA18: Section 3.4 H18: Forecast accuracy H18: Variable selection |
| 11 May |
Mark & Eli |
Review session |
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| 16 May |
Eric |
Spatial and spatio-temporal models |
html 1 Rmd 1 |
Video 1 |
River
spatial models River spatial 2 River spatial 3 |
| 18 May |
Eric |
Spatial and spatio-temporal models |
html 1 html 2 html 3 Rmd 1 Rmd 2 Rmd 3 |
Video 1 |
|
| 23 May |
Mark |
Frequency domain Fourier transforms Spectral analysis Wavelet analysis |
pdf 1 html 1 Rmd 1 |
Video 1 |
Graps
(1995) Percival & Walden (2000) |
| 25 May |
Eli |
AR(p) Models Estimating interaction strengths Gompertz models Stability metrics |
html 1 Rmd 1 |
Video 1 |
Hampton
et al 2013 Ives et al 2003 HWS18a: Chap 14 & 18 MAR Stability Metrics AR(1) errors Mark’s B estimation talk |
| 30 May |
|
Nick: Repeat spawning of steelhead Dylan: Analyzing mountain lion movement data Zoe: Model-based stoplight chart for seabird indicators Emma: Ocean microbiome community drivers |
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| 1 Jun |
|
Student presentations |
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