10 Jan 2019

Topics for today

Characteristics of time series

  • Expectation, mean & variance
  • Covariance & correlation
  • Stationarity
  • Autocovariance & autocorrelation
  • Correlograms

White noise

Random walks

Backshift & difference operators

Expectation & the mean

The expectation (\(E\)) of a variable is its mean value in the population

\(\text{E}(x) \equiv\) mean of \(x = \mu\)

We can estimate \(\mu\) from a sample as

\[ m = \frac{\sum_{i=1}^N{x_i}}{N} \]

Variance

\(\text{E}([x - \mu]^2) \equiv\) expected deviations of \(x\) about \(\mu\)

\(\text{E}([x - \mu]^2) \equiv\) variance of \(x = \sigma^2\)

We can estimate \(\sigma^2\) from a sample as

\[ s^2 = \frac{1}{N-1}\sum_{i=1}^N{(x_i - m)^2} \]

Covariance

If we have two variables, \(x\) and \(y\), we can generalize variance

\[ \sigma^2 = \text{E}([x_i - \mu][x_i - \mu]) \]

into covariance

\[ \gamma_{x,y} = \text{E}([x_i - \mu_x][y_i - \mu_y]) \]

Covariance

If we have two variables, \(x\) and \(y\), we can generalize variance

\[ \sigma^2 = \text{E}([x_i - \mu][x_i - \mu]) \]

into covariance

\[ \gamma_{x,y} = \text{E}([x_i - \mu_x][y_i - \mu_y]) \]

We can estimate \(\gamma_{x,y}\) from a sample as

\[ \text{Cov}(x,y) = \frac{1}{N-1}\sum_{i=1}^N{(x_i - m_x)(y_i - m_y)} \]

Graphical example of covariance

Graphical example of covariance

Graphical example of covariance

Correlation

Correlation is a dimensionless measure of the linear association between 2 variables, \(x\) & \(y\)

It is simply the covariance standardized by the standard deviations

\[ \rho_{x,y} = \frac{\gamma_{x,y}}{\sigma_x \sigma_y} \]

\[ -1 < \rho_{x,y} < 1 \]

Correlation

Correlation is a dimensionless measure of the linear association between 2 variables \(x\) & \(y\)

It is simply the covariance standardized by the standard deviations

\[ \rho_{x,y} = \frac{\gamma_{x,y}}{\sigma_x \sigma_y} \]

We can estimate \(\rho_{x,y}\) from a sample as

\[ \text{Cor}(x,y) = \frac{\text{Cov}(x,y)}{s_x s_y} \]

Stationarity & the mean

Consider a single value, \(x_t\)

Stationarity & the mean

Consider a single value, \(x_t\)

\(\text{E}(x_t)\) is taken across an ensemble of all possible time series

Stationarity & the mean

Stationarity & the mean

Our single realization is our estimate!

Our single realization is our estimate!

Stationarity & the mean

If \(\text{E}(x_t)\) is constant across time, we say the time series is stationary in the mean

Stationarity of time series

Stationarity is a convenient assumption that allows us to describe the statistical properties of a time series.

In general, a time series is said to be stationary if there is

  1. no systematic change in the mean or variance
  2. no systematic trend
  3. no periodic variations or seasonality

Identifying stationarity

Identifying stationarity

Our eyes are really bad at identifying stationarity, so we will learn some tools to help us

Autocovariance function (ACVF)

For stationary ts, we define the autocovariance function (\(\gamma_k\)) as

\[ \gamma_k = \text{E}([x_t - \mu][x_{t+k} - \mu]) \]

which means that

\[ \gamma_0 = \text{E}([x_t - \mu][x_{t} - \mu]) = \sigma^2 \]

Autocovariance function (ACVF)

For stationary ts, we define the autocovariance function (\(\gamma_k\)) as

\[ \gamma_k = \text{E}([x_t - \mu][x_{t+k} - \mu]) \]

"Smooth" series have large ACVF for large \(k\)

"Choppy" series have ACVF near 0 for small \(k\)

Autocovariance function (ACVF)

For stationary ts, we define the autocovariance function (\(\gamma_k\)) as

\[ \gamma_k = \text{E}([x_t - \mu][x_{t+k} - \mu]) \]

We can estimate \(\gamma_k\) from a sample as

\[ c_k = \frac{1}{N}\sum_{t=1}^{N-k}{(x_t - m)(x_{t+k} - m)} \]

Autocorrelation function (ACF)

The autocorrelation function (ACF) is simply the ACVF normalized by the variance

\[ \rho_k = \frac{\gamma_k}{\sigma^2} = \frac{\gamma_k}{\gamma_0} \]

The ACF measures the correlation of a time series against a time-shifted version of itself

Autocorrelation function (ACF)

The autocorrelation function (ACF) is simply the ACVF normalized by the variance

\[ \rho_k = \frac{\gamma_k}{\sigma^2} = \frac{\gamma_k}{\gamma_0} \]

The ACF measures the correlation of a time series against a time-shifted version of itself

We can estimate ACF from a sample as

\[ r_k = \frac{c_k}{c_0} \]

Properties of the ACF

The ACF has several important properties:

  • \(-1 \leq r_k \leq 1\)
  • \(r_k = r_{-k}\)
  • \(r_k\) of periodic function is itself periodic
  • \(r_k\) for the sum of 2 independent variables is the sum of \(r_k\) for each of them

The correlogram

Graphical output for the ACF

Graphical output for the ACF

The correlogram

The ACF at lag = 0 is always 1

The ACF at lag = 0 is always 1

The correlogram

Approximate confidence intervals

Approximate confidence intervals

ACF for deterministic forms

ACF for deterministic forms

ACF for deterministic forms

ACF for deterministic forms

Induced autocorrelation

Recall the transitive property, whereby

If \(A = B\) and \(B = C\), then \(A = C\)

Induced autocorrelation

Recall the transitive property, whereby

If \(A = B\) and \(B = C\), then \(A = C\)

which suggests that

If \(x \propto y\) and \(y \propto z\), then \(x \propto z\)

Induced autocorrelation

Recall the transitive property, whereby

If \(A = B\) and \(B = C\), then \(A = C\)

which suggests that

If \(x \propto y\) and \(y \propto z\), then \(x \propto z\)

and thus

If \(x_t \propto x_{t+1}\) and \(x_{t+1} \propto x_{t+2}\), then \(x_t \propto x_{t+2}\)

Partial autocorrelation funcion (PACF)

The partial autocorrelation function (\(\phi_k\)) measures the correlation between a series \(x_t\) and \(x_{t+k}\) with the linear dependence of \(\{x_{t-1},x_{t-2},\dots,x_{t-k-1}\}\) removed

Partial autocorrelation funcion (PACF)

The partial autocorrelation function (\(\phi_k\)) measures the correlation between a series \(x_t\) and \(x_{t+k}\) with the linear dependence of \(\{x_{t-1},x_{t-2},\dots,x_{t-k-1}\}\) removed

We can estimate \(\phi_k\) from a sample as

\[ \phi_k = \begin{cases} \text{Cor}(x_1,x_0) = \rho_1 & \text{if } k = 1 \\ \text{Cor}(x_k-x_k^{k-1}, x_0-x_0^{k-1}) & \text{if } k \geq 2 \end{cases} \]

\[ x_k^{k-1} = \beta_1 x_{k-1} + \beta_2 x_{k-2} + \dots + \beta_{k-1} x_1 \]

\[ x_0^{k-1} = \beta_1 x_1 + \beta_2 x_2 + \dots + \beta_{k-1} x_{k-1} \]

Lake Washington phytoplankton

Lake Washington phytoplankton

Autocorrelation

Autocorrelation

Lake Washington phytoplankton

Partial autocorrelation

Partial autocorrelation

ACF & PACF in model selection

The ACF & PACF will be very useful for identifying the orders of ARMA models

Cross-covariance function (CCVF)

Often we want to look for relationships between 2 different time series

We can extend the notion of covariance to cross-covariance

Cross-covariance function (CCVF)

Often we want to look for relationships between 2 different time series

We can extend the notion of covariance to cross-covariance

We can estimate \(g^{x,y}_k\) from a sample as

\[ g^{x,y}_k = \frac{1}{N}\sum_{t=1}^{N-k}{(x_t - m_x)(y_{t+k} - m_y)} \]

Cross-correlation function (CCF)

The cross-correlation function is the CCVF normalized by the standard deviations of x & y

\[ r^{x,y}_k = \frac{g^{x,y}_k}{s_x s_y} \]

Just as with other measures of correlation

\[ -1 \leq r^{x,y}_k \leq 1 \]

Example of cross-correlation

SOME SIMPLE MODELS

White noise (WN)

A time series \(\{w_t\}\) is discrete white noise if its values are

  1. independent

  2. identically distributed with a mean of zero

White noise (WN)

A time series \(\{w_t\}\) is discrete white noise if its values are

  1. independent

  2. identically distributed with a mean of zero

Note that distributional form for \(\{w_t\}\) is flexible

White noise (WN)

$w_t = 2e_t - 1; e_t \sim \text{Bernoulli}(0.5)$

\(w_t = 2e_t - 1; e_t \sim \text{Bernoulli}(0.5)\)

Gaussian white noise

We often assume so-called Gaussian white noise, whereby

\[ w_t \sim \text{N}(0,\sigma^2) \]

Gaussian white noise

We often assume so-called Gaussian white noise, whereby

\[ w_t \sim \text{N}(0,\sigma^2) \]

and the following apply as well

    autocovariance:  \(\gamma_k = \begin{cases} \sigma^2 & \text{if } k = 0 \\ 0 & \text{if } k \geq 1 \end{cases}\)

    autocorrelation:   \(\rho_k = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if } k = 0 \\ 0 & \text{if } k \geq 1 \end{cases}\)

Gaussian white noise

$w_t \sim \text{N}(0,1)$

\(w_t \sim \text{N}(0,1)\)

Random walk (RW)

A time series \(\{x_t\}\) is a random walk if

  1. \(x_t = x_{t-1} + w_t\)

  2. \(w_t\) is white noise

Random walk (RW)

The following apply to random walks

    mean:   \(\mu_x = 0\)

    autocovariance:   \(\gamma_k(t) = t \sigma^2\)

    autocorrelation:   \(\rho_k(t) = \frac{t \sigma^2}{\sqrt{t \sigma^2(t + k) \sigma^2}}\)

Random walk (RW)

The following apply to random walks

    mean:   \(\mu_x = 0\)

    autocovariance:   \(\gamma_k(t) = t \sigma^2\)

    autocorrelation:   \(\rho_k(t) = \frac{t \sigma^2}{\sqrt{t \sigma^2(t + k) \sigma^2}}\)

Note: Random walks are not stationary

Random walk (RW)

$x_t = x_{t-1} + w_t; w_t \sim \text{N}(0,1)$

\(x_t = x_{t-1} + w_t; w_t \sim \text{N}(0,1)\)

SOME IMPORTANT OPERATORS

The backshift shift operator

The backshift shift operator (\(\mathbf{B}\)) is an important function in time series analysis, which we define as

\[ \mathbf{B} x_t = x_{t-1} \]

or more generally as

\[ \mathbf{B}^k x_t = x_{t-k} \]

The backshift shift operator

For example, a random walk with

\[ x_t = x_{t-1} + w_t \]

can be written as

\[ \begin{align} x_t &= \mathbf{B} x_t + w_t \\ x_t - \mathbf{B} x_t &= w_t \\ (1 - \mathbf{B}) x_t &= w_t \\ x_t &= (1 - \mathbf{B})^{-1} w_t \end{align} \]

The difference operator

The difference operator (\(\nabla\)) is another important function in time series analysis, which we define as

\[ \nabla x_t = x_t - x_{t-1} \]

The difference operator

The difference operator (\(\nabla\)) is another important function in time series analysis, which we define as

\[ \nabla x_t = x_t - x_{t-1} \]

For example, first-differencing a random walk yields white noise

\[ \begin{align} \nabla x_t &= x_{t-1} + w_t \\ x_t - x_{t-1} &= x_{t-1} + w_t - x_{t-1}\\ x_t - x_{t-1} &= w_t\\ \end{align} \]

The difference operator

The difference operator and the backshift operator are related

\[ \nabla^k = (1 - \mathbf{B})^k \]

The difference operator

The difference operator and the backshift operator are related

\[ \nabla^k = (1 - \mathbf{B})^k \]

For example

\[ \begin{align} \nabla x_t &= (1 - \mathbf{B})x_t \\ x_t - x_{t-1} &= x_t - \mathbf{B} x_t \\ x_t - x_{t-1} &= x_t - x_{t-1} \end{align} \]

Differencing to remove a trend

Differencing is a simple means for removing a trend

The 1st-difference removes a linear trend; a 2nd-difference would remove a quadratic trend, etc.

Differencing to remove a trend

Differencing to remove seasonality

Differencing is a simple means for removing a seasonal effect

Using a 1st-difference with \(k = period\) removes both trend & seasonal effects

Differencing to remove seasonality

Topics for today

Characteristics of time series

  • Expectation, mean & variance
  • Covariance & correlation
  • Stationarity
  • Autocovariance & autocorrelation
  • Correlograms

White noise

Random walks

Backshift & difference operators